Make Bold Guesses and Weed Out the Failures

This seems to be a general model through which all complex systems improve themselves over time. They make bold guesses, and then they weed out the things that didn't work.

Einstein said that he wasn't necessarily brighter than most other people. It's that he was passionately interested in particular problems. And he had a curiosity and an imagination—imagination was key for him.

Your best theories are going to be creative guesses, not simple extrapolations.

Good explanations rely on creativity. These good explanations—testable and falsifiable, of course—but they are hard to vary, and they make risky and narrow predictions.