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podcast. My guest today is Daniel gross. Daniel is the founder of pioneer an extremely unique company, which he describes as a fully remote start of generator that helps talented people around the world figure out if their idea has legs, you can learn more about it at pioneer.org app are wide-ranging conversation covers the art of asking great questions the use of predictive modeling and psycho.
Metrics to identify talent and why psychometrics are probably overrated and not that scientific. We then dive into exciting New Frontiers for Tech investing ranging from GPT 3 2 satellites. I really enjoyed this conversation and hope you will too. So Daniel. I don't think I've ever started the podcast by asking about movies, but there's two that were you and I were talking about earlier that I thought would be a fun place to start those two are crank starring Jason Statham and Whiplash, which is one of my all-time favorites. Why do you care about these to move?
These
I love those two movies. I find them very useful as a screening tactic as well as whiplashes to those. Maybe who haven't seen is a story of a musician a drummer in particular with The Talented coach who gets pushed a little bit too much and I very much love that story. I very much empathize with it the story kind of the insecure overachiever following almost too much in love with the vehicle of his performance and you could cut it many ways whether it's a you know, it's variational or cautionary Tale But what I find interesting is there's a lot of questions. You can't really ask people directly when you're talking.
To them or interviews or social settings or whatever and I find their opinion on movies to be something that lets you have that conversation in a fairly coded way. It's so interesting. I find it relaxes the conversation a little bit even as we're talking about movies now, it feels much less tense than a conversation about. I don't know the top performing stocks or something. So there's an element of play and Novelty and kind of using it in the interview.
What do you think that tests and people so the Whiplash is a great litmus test and you could see how it would rub some people.
The exact wrong way and others like you said see themselves in it or something. What is that line that's being played with their the would last
question is actually one. I have used quite a bunch of interviews. I find it separates people. I think who have a adversarial relationship with their work to maybe an inspirational relationship with their work and I understand if you have an adversarial relationship in most jobs, actually why I think we're both extremely lucky to have our jobs be our passions, but I think a lot of people in Silicon Valley in particular over time developed area.
Give and take relationship with their work where they want to do the minimum amount possible such that they can return to life. I think that's fine for many people. I tend to very much enjoy the presence in company of just a different style of person one who very much views the work as a way to perform as something inspiring us something to do more of and there's an element of and Whiplash almost a worshipping of achievement in that sense now, like everything there's probably a dose response curve like a hormone for work and anything can go too far, but I feel like it very quickly filters out someone who says you wouldn't want to take any
Anything too seriously to someone who says gosh. I hate to say it. But that was great. I don't know what causes that split in people. That's of course a very interesting thing assuming they are working at a job. That's a creative Pursuit. We can kind of construe two different styles of jobs. Maybe jobs were the Delta between the median and the tail is maybe ten or twenty percent. So like a cab driver Best Taxi Driver New York City is going to be 15 percent better than the median but in a creative pursuit or in investing or software engineering the tail is literally 10 times. John Carmack is 10 times better.
Junior than myself it's so in those situations. I think you really want to be looking out for people that are really interested in the job. And you work as they something that they almost have to meet her and goes out for themselves as opposed to something that they're careful not to do too much of such speak.
You've laid like an amazing transition to one of the topics that I want to cover its at the end of your story, which is Pioneer, but the perfect excuse to talk about what you've learned from screening through Talent be helpful for you to first set some context and describe. What pioneer
Here is what it does and then I'm going to ask all sorts of questions about parsing through talented people
pioneer is a company that I run and it's kind of a cross between the two different careers that have had over the course of my life. I've initially started a search engine that got acquired by Apple later on became a investor in a bunch of different startups and worked at a startup investment firm and findings kind of the culmination of those two things. It's kind of part search engine parts Venture investment firm. And what we're trying to do is we're trying to use the power of the internet to find people around the world.
Are potentially interested in starting companies and we're almost trying to through software both qualify them and figure out if they're good or not and also almost convinced them to start companies even create. So to speak more Founders, you know the same way you see palette on creating more cyclists or Strava creating more Runners. I've had the pleasure of the course of my career both through Pioneer and through others to invest in a bunch of different companies. I've had the chance to meet a bunch of different Founders and over the course of my time having maybe been won and I'm very interested in this topic. I think there's an interesting question for any acid allocator to
what extent you believe especially at the early stage that you want to be looking for great markets or great Founders and like everything the truth is somewhere in between we can except maybe as an axiom that being able to screen people are they're using software or using your own mind is going important thing not just for investors, of course, but for anyone looking to hire or really do anything significant in life, I find the question of talents to actually be the most important question in the world because it is at the end of the day required to do anything interesting
as somebody that's done for amount of predictive modeling. I know from experience that
Often the most important thing is defining the outcome very cleanly and very well before testing certain variables are features against that outcome. I'd love to hear how you Define talent. If the idea is to search for talented people. How do you know that you found one in some sort of modeling exercise metrics for success is a
fascinating problem because at the end of the day you're planting seeds and it'll take a decade or so for it to grow into its tree and we have these moments at Pioneer where we're not quite sure are we successful or not companies have
the end of the day of very short-term feedback loop to chase which is revenue which obviously can be abused but I actually think of the general wonderful incentive structure for progress in society for us. It's obviously less clear and there's kind of metrics we can look at to figure out if a person is good. You know, one thing Pioneer looks at is the fraction of the folks that we fund the get funded by others, but just right now around 20-25 percent or so and so follow on funding is something you can look at. But of course we work or the vision fund has taught us that that alone isn't good enough one thing. I'm always on the lookout for with people. Are they moving quickly?
evolving quickly in my view at the end of the day when you're betting on a Founder, especially if the markets not super clear, what you're trying to do is you're trying to predict that that particular person will have as many shots on goal as possible because occasionally companies get formed and it's akin to someone's sticking a toothpick in the sand in Saudi Arabian oil comes gushing out product-market fit on day three great done, but more often than not there's a tale of endurance there and what you want is the person who's going to plunge as many toothpicks into the ground as possible who's going to take as many shots on goal as possible and that's why I think derivative is
D important because it's one thing to have energy if you're kind of searching through random space you could actually spend a lot of time to Pivot in your company before you be out somewhere. But if there's a little bit of intelligence, they're the kind of reinforcement learning algorithm at the end of the day will end up making compounding, you know, better and better decisions investors often think about the magic of compounding and how hidden that is for most people. I think it's interesting to think of compounding not just in kegger, but kind of in a person and that to me is one of the simplest things you can try to measure on kind of a short term to give you a sense of whether the person company or
Projects are kind of going somewhere long-term.
One of the things you mentioned the blending of search engine and investment fund. That's so interesting. One of the mental models here would be something like page rank in search right like Google's original competitive Advantage where they base the quality of a site on like I guess how often it was referred to or linked to by other sites. Is there some equivalent in talent for page rank. Is that a useful analogy for thinking about sorting through people
this takes us down to the very interesting world of psychometrics and all sorts of ways we can
Try to use to try to get a sense of whether a person is good or not. And this would be remarkably important if it was possible because we would find a way to highlight people that have been overlooked by every other possible system. One thing I'm very tickled by is Pioneer as a business model is economically incentivized to find people that have been overlooked by anyone else that is to say the terms that we offer folks once our system grades them as great are not terms that a Stanford undergrad should take her except Sequoia. We'll offer them better terms, but we're very much going after these underrated.
Sets and so if you could find a way to figure out if these folks are good or not and software are mostly software. That would be great. The part of the issue is though that any time you kind of quantify anything in the world you are taking a high-level dimensional space and you're reducing it to a lower level Dimension and you're going to lose data question is whether your lossy encoding technique is truly kind of MP3. We're at the end of the day you don't notice the difference or is it something more aggressive? Are you losing kind of too many pixels or too many bytes along the process in an attempt to reduce a person to another
number, you know, have you lost her the magic and so to date Pioneers taken the approach of almost like a how would you say like a self-driving car algorithm where we still use humans to kind of occasionally guide the system and reinforce the data set. Nothing works better than really trying to evaluate the person based on the progress that they make so when you do sign up you get a score and that's court is how good you and your project. Is there emerged. So on the one hand it's half page rank on the other hand. It's a little bit half power score on a bike in the sense that
You can actively work to drive that score better and you can see the feedback result. You're very eager to see that number go up week over week. Now again, like any maximization function people will maximize it whether it's decidedly good or not. I've really view Founders as excellent hierarchy maximizers and terrible hierarchy selectors. So people don't really know what they're doing, but they just want to drive the score that they have week over week in it's pretty much built like a video game in that sense where the more progress you make on your project the higher your score goes and like pagerank. There's a whole composite.
Function of what goes into that score could be things like growing your Revenue. It could be things like what other peers who are in Pioneer think about the progress that you've made this particular week or Myriad of other tasks in our goal. Our goal is to really shove more and more into this infinite portrait of what progress and accompanying an individual look like such that at the end of the day, we're fully able to quantify it sir actually view the resolution that we're currently using to understand someone to be fairly low, you know, maybe it's a 16-bit bitmap and some point there's going to be a whole 4K edition of pioneer where
Thousands of different metrics you can pump into the system Twitter followers that you have and I don't know YouTube views on your video and revenue growth this particular month Revenue growth benchmarked against other companies analysis of the way your company interacts over slack as much as we can get to really not just quantify who's good and who's not but also motivate people to get better. I think if we're able to build a reliable metric for day-to-day progress, it will not only be a great service for creating more startups, but I think it'll be a great thing for productivity you don't
Prove what you don't measure and I think part of the issue is by the way natural for Pioneer, but I think for anyone working on something early stage or an investor is it's not really clear at the end of the day what separates a good day from a bad day. There's no score and we know that in markets and industries where there is a score people do improve and markets are efficient. So for example in sales, it's very clear. What a good day is very clear. What a bad day is and people are motivated to improve measure whose great who's not and if there's someone Junior on the team has really good the rewarded based on the merits of their work and sports. This is extremely clear as well good day and
That day it's not really clear. If you're an investor. What a good day or bad day. It's not really clear. If you're an early stage startup. What a good day or bad day is I mean, even for a software engineer, it's not really clear. What a good day or bad day is
I'm curious to what degree still psychometrics maybe you can Define what that term means. What are some examples of psychometrics what things you found maybe that matter or are at least interesting to you having explored all those Avenues?
Yeah II metrics is a very interesting topic at a high level. It is the attempt to use
Arius mechanics, mostly self-assessment mechanisms to get a sense of the individual to be able to bucket them into different categories this again, I think could be very easily used for evil. But for the most part I think stands to be a force for good because it allows you to screen people without necessarily being subjected to a person's gender race language restriction, whatever over the course of a couple of decades centuries a bunch of different psychometric techniques have been to discuss Myers-Briggs is a tremendously popular one that in my personal a very humble opinion is horribly inaccurate and doesn't regret
Anything really material, the big five aspects scale is currently viewed as the popular psychometric toolkit or framework, but I should mention before we go any further that psychometric. So I think in general there's two interesting things to observe about them about the whole concept of them. First is that once someone is exposed to the concept of psychometrics. There's a period of infatuation where they tend to over use it and assume that it is the decoder ring for life. It does try to take a very high dimensional space one of the highest Dimensions. We kind of know which is the individual.
And reduce it and so you get really excited because you think - the big five aspects scale. I Now understand everything and over time as he's it's funny. My sister's a psychologist. And I remember I first came to her many years ago wild-eyed about the big five. She said I forgot I think she called it something like the Big 5 Halo and she said call me in a year. It'll fade a little bit and she was very right someone listen here. I think you can do quite a bit of researching in Google and maybe we'll send around some links after this but you should realize that the end of the day that there's a modest level of efficacy here. And then the second thing is why is not
More kind of efficient and why the science here isn't better. I think is a very interesting reason like epidemiology. I think before the coronavirus there were no free market stressors that were really applied to the validity of psychometrics and in my humble opinion if there are no free market stressors, the science is false. So I think we're realizing a lot of epidemiology and modeling kind of viruses. Just those people don't
Know what they're talking about and I don't blame them because capitalism I find is is gravity that grounds things that pulls them back down to reality as opposed to The Ether of space and ideas a Counterpoint here would be weather forecasting. We know its limitations very accurately that is because it is grounded in the free market so psychometrics with the exception of the military, maybe air traffic control which happens to use IQ tests and to three other organizations is not really grounded in reality, which is one of the reasons why I think Pioneer has been able to
Make remarkable progress in the field now because we're that good but because it's very nascent days because for the most part the effect sizes in the world of psychometric sin, the big five are extremely light the biggest effect size that people are excited about it is true that I think the r-squared of iq2 earnings is like point six or something but you're still not explaining a huge amount of variance at that point, but that is the most celebrated effect size. So I think we should be careful when trying to use this the final thing. I should say.
Say is I think a lot of these things are useful because of the language that they give people and it is useful. I think after you would meet someone or if you're in your team and you're working and you're trying to discuss them one after the interview it is useful to have common vernacular and taxonomy about how you describe someone to that extent. Myers-Briggs may be helpful. If you all kind of agree on that language, it doesn't matter that the actual test of Myers Brakes is valid or not One Reason, by the way, why a lot of these tests are just wrong. Is there based on self?
In self-assessment is such a crazy thing. We're going to ask the person to evaluate themselves at one point in time. Call me at eight o'clock in the morning after a cup of coffee and I'll give you a very different assessment from two o'clock in the morning about myself.
It seems like the quality of persistence becomes incredibly important in all this especially when you're measuring literal progress and the variety of different ways, whether that's revenue or some of the thing further Upstream from revenue inside of a person's project or company. Do you think that persistence is obviously you need some
Natural aptitude and probably some curiosity but do you think ultimately persistence might be the most simple way of talking about all this
persistence power or energy are worth we frequently use I think that's important because you need to ensure the person's going to take many shots on goal. It's just your sense of how formidable they are to you is maybe a question. You can ask yourself the kind of reflects that on them. I think Paul Graham originally y combinator originally said that was one thing he looked for in Founders as he wants to walk away from the meeting feeling a little bit afraid the other thing.
On I think with persistence or energy is the person is very interested in improving on particular dimension in their company or what have you because there are performing at the end of the day for someone in particular and I think that can give someone a very elongated sense of endurance of persistence often. You'll meet Founders, you know, who really look up to other Founders or other leaders if they get stuck in the right feedback loop, they will find themselves very much performing for that individual in a way that's constructive for society. There's also a
corrective mechanism of this where people spend a lot of time on Twitter trying to get Elon to favorite one of their tweets and dopamine hit from that becomes the thing that they chase but that's in my opinion kind of not that useful for the world. Obviously. Like I mentioned Founders are very bad at selecting hierarchies to maximize and very good at maximizing whatever game that they're in and maximizing status. I think is a useless hierarchy because it's infinite capital is a great one to maximize precisely because it's scarce and so you could meet a Founder who's going to spend all day trying to get any of your previous.
His guests to like retweet their tweet and that will be their entire game in life that when they wake up in the morning. That's who they're performing for. And that's really what they're trying to do. But I find the best Founders you the company the revenue as the vehicle through which they're performing and obviously I think that's much more healthy because for someone to click like on your Tweet, it requires far less effort than parting with something of scarce value, like giving you money for your product
you mentioned earlier term and it's my last question on personality side. You mention the term that I think our friend Graham.
Is the first one to introduce me to which is insecure overachiever, everything you just said makes me think of insecurity and how that gets filled. Do you think in your experience with all these different Pioneers that insecurity is a good thing or a bad
thing. I definitely think it removes the foundation from the building and it creates a bit more of a shaky atmosphere. I think it can create a lot of energy and someone precisely because like a molecule searching for a couple and bond they're going to be looking for someone else to perform for because they have that sense of insecurity.
And they don't know where they sit in a hierarchy and they will need to find a way to validate their position be it in a dinner party or online or what their company and said that I think is often what creates what propels a lot of that energy. Look I say this as someone who's slightly insecure myself and think I've gotten a little bit better at this as I've aged. I actually was commenting to our friend Graham that I think one thing that one transition that one goes through, you know in life certainly that I've observed recently is by developing in some cases of family and my particular case very small set of very close.
Relationships some of that insecurity does tend to go away because what kind of happens is you find your place in your world and you find a hierarchy that you feel like you can sit in comfortably regardless of the actions that you take but often I actually think this is one of the Hidden reasons why immigration works it is because you take a person out of a hierarchy from one country voluntarily and you shove them into a new hierarchy where they have no idea where they stand I think that creates a lot of insecurities speak to anyone who came to San Francisco who immigrated here could be from Wisconsin could be from India. It doesn't matter.
And they have no friends. And so they kind of don't know where they sit in the world because they're in a brand new place in many ways. I think the story of immigration is the story of someone who's fairly insecure trying to secure their place in the hierarchy and I think that can create greatness that feedback loop can cut both ways. You can spend a lot of time as I mentioned earlier maximizing stupid things. I think the interesting question here. The interesting question is whether you would wish that thing on your children because I think there's something about the whip Last Story the insecure overachiever story, which is very good for society.
Society very thrilling for the individual but there are definitely our ups and downs. I actually although I feel somewhat blessed to have this Dynamic myself. I feel like it gives me a level of immersion and flow that I couldn't access I think if I was just more confident in my place in the world, I do wonder if that's something occasionally does cause this
comfort you mentioned capital is sort of an interesting thing to be optimizing around because of its inherent scarcity. Can you walk us through this concept you have of fast-twitch versus slow twitch capitalism.
It's funny I speak.
A lot of people who are trying to figure out what career to take especially kind of people on the younger side in life. We're trying to figure out if they go into investing or operating a company or working at a company. I feel like there's so much Capital sloshing around. There's a lot of seed funds being created. I mean, I think the only thing that would be more common than starting a seed fund is the downloading Tick-Tock. There's a lot of people stepping into Venture that in my personal opinion. I don't think we'll actually be happy is Venture managers because Venture is kind of this form of slow twitch.
Which capitalism where the amount of time it takes for you to get the reward and the amount we were talking earlier about early ways of figuring out if you're making progress or not. It's very unclear and Venture what you're doing for a very long time and it takes a while to figure out if you're decent or not. There's a lot of people I'm noticing that are mistaking activity for progress. And the way you see this is writing a lot of investments into a lot of different companies. I think in many ways to fill a void inside themselves should get a sense that they're advancing in.
World, but of course as we know, you know Small Checks Into A lot of different companies doesn't really create for great result. You want to be in an enduring position on the cap table in a small set of companies is far better concentration is a goal. It is not a risk. I think that's because these are people that would be much better suited to kind of fast which capitalism which is I think a company where there's things changing every day. There's Revenue to be chasing deals to be had progress to be made as opposed to slow-twitch metabolism could be your other metaphor here which just takes longer and I think you have to be slightly.
We more self-assured
to do it. You mentioned memes fascinating topic and a huge driver of human behavior. What if you're thinking here on their importance they tend to be funny things online, but the funny things we see demonstrate how much a lot of what we do is just copying other people what you're thinking I'm means
it's very important. I think to understand in the world for any type of acid allocator or someone running a business because I think it helps explain a lot of human behavior. I think the sexting them is very interesting and I think for every particular mean you may want to think
About what is the kind of hole in the world that this thing is filling and why is it possible even something as why has matcha become popular something. I've been thinking about lately What whole void in the world is the matcha latte filling? It's interesting to think about because this wasn't as much as a fad ten years ago, and now it's certainly an explosive Meme and I think a lot of it interestingly is a byproduct of Instagram. I think Instagram wants Instagram got popular created a shortage in the world of colorful experiences.
That were purchasable, you know to fairly low rate. What is something I can buy that's colorful that will pop in the Instagram filter and I think as a result you started to see a lot of dynamic contrast and colors purple drinks green drinks orange drinks the matcha latte kind of filled that void when you walk around the street and you see people order their matcha latte you kind of realize what they're actually doing is they're somewhat following this meme I think which wouldn't have gotten popular without Instagram. So being able to detect these things and kind of
I think the underlying systems behind why humans do really anything I find super useful. I feel like sometimes I'm walking around the world with this little heads up display when I'm able to think this way and really understand the reason behind the reason
with all of this as background and backdrop. So we've got sort of the discussion around Pioneer and urging people to become entrepreneurs maybe even convincing ones that wouldn't have otherwise to do. So and also this trend of lots of capital in the system, you know, lots of seed funds or well
just lots of risk seeking Capital with rates. So low and I guess easier probably to get funded as an entrepreneur than ever before with those two things in mind. What are you seeing? That's interesting as themes in the kinds of businesses being founded today. What is sort of the frontier if you will of companies being formed?
Yeah what I said before I get in is what I find. So interesting is how rapidly this scene involves Founders are these migrant species kind of a wildebeest moving from Savannah to Savannah for
Every Market is more interesting. And one of the reasons why I think the study of the Medics is so important is that can kind of help you predict where things are going to go to one thing. That's quite popular now is there's a lot of people working on various chat aggregation Services. Matrix is an open-source chat ecosystem as part of the ecosystem. There's all sorts of people that have built adapters things that let you Slurp in kind of WhatsApp signal whatever messaging service use to this kind of Federated service and that's our open the door for I think half a dozen or so startups that are kind of experimenting with bringing back and
mm and I CQ so that's one fairly active field. The other one does kind of adjacent that's pretty active. Now. It's been interesting to watch Enterprise RPA robotic process automation, which was certainly kind of a celebrated category of twenty eighteen and nineteen fade away and replacement for search. Another thing. That's kind of become fairly popular recently is the whole ecosystem around Robin Hood, obviously, everyone kind of becomes a Trader now, but there's a lot of people building the picks and shovels for this Bloomberg for Robin Hood or various trading apps to help people trade better.
It kind of remains unclear whether what you really want to be building in this world as a Bloomberg or Reddit. So to speak what matters more whether it's Community or tooling but that's pretty active seen the most rampant scene of activity, which really goes to speak to how startups get created is founder solving their own anecdotal problems is there are a ton ton of people working on various forms of socializing online really trying to solve the zoom conundrum. So to speak which is to say, why is it that meeting over Zoom is not as good as in the real world and how can we make it different?
And better A lot of what I would say Horseless carriages in this world in the sense that what they are are people very much trying to recreate the real world on the internet instead of being internet first. I think it's very interesting. If you look at pretty much any technology the cars, obviously the famous one of the Horseless Carriage metaphor pretty much any technology goes through kind of The Real World variant of it we can kind of think of I don't know pen and paper the first kind of digital form of it the word processor and then the kind of fully online variant of it, which would be Google Docs you could think of an
For pedia to protonic online to Wikipedia same effect, and it feels like a lot of the video conferencing 2.0 stuff is still stuck in the encyclopedia era. No one's really figured out that Wikipedia of that which I think will look incredibly different from the way it is to interact in the real world. Those are some interesting categories going on. There's another one started fairly recently, maybe in the past two or three weeks, which is there's a lot of people trying to use GPT three to build various companies.
Can we spend some time on that last one? We're recording this on the when it was announced or
Released but fairly recent over the last couple of weeks. Could you describe what GPT 3 is it is equal parts thrilling interesting, maybe scary describe where it came from what it is and then we will talk about building companies on top of it.
We compute the tools we discussed earlier to view the lens of GPT 3, which is to say I do think it is a meme in all honesty. If you haven't heard of GPT three, I'd be very curious to talk to you because that must mean you're in a very different orbit than mine because that's all my world sees. So at the end of the day GP D 3 is a machine learning model that's been developed by opening a guy. That's
Achieved a remarkable advance in the field of natural language understanding from writing essays to summarizing text to doing question-answering GPT. 3 is not quite like a human but it's surprisingly close one simple metaphor for someone would beat its kind of just assumed that you P3 has ADD and it's able to understand text a very shallow depth so it can produce and understand things like tweets or maybe a paragraph or two if you ask GPT 3 to kind of understand something of any deeper knowledge. It tends to really go off the rails and
Arresting ways but it really goes off the rails. It can do things that shallow depth much like images require kind of shallow depth of attention beyond that. I think it still fails. I think it is extremely interesting to think about and we'll talk about business applications for GPT three in a moment but is extremely interesting to ponder if one assumes that GPT 3 is overhyped why exactly it is overhyped what is causing this level of - insanity and one simple explanation is I do think much like the Macho lattes were providing a product in a shortage of
Honest in the world GP T3 is providing technological advance in a world that short of it. We've yet to see something kind of big and new in the world of technology, maybe since the iPhone and this is kind of close to it a computer that can write text that resembles a human is kind of close to it. And so as a result people are quite excited about it. The other thing going on with gbd3 is especially if you kind of look online, it's very easy for people to experiment with opening. I didn't, you know, just released kind of a research paper that no one could use they actually released a nice little website.
Where you could kind of toy with the model and speak to it and the results it produces. I would say maybe six times out of 10 are bad. But the four times out of 10 you cherry pick and you post on Twitter and you get reaction from people. It's almost a tool of creativity in that sense and not really created a tremendous amount of hype and excitement around it. I think it's a good thing for the World by the way, regardless of whether the product is underhyped overhyped the hype will leads to capital investment will lead to more people working on this and I can tell you as someone who ran out of search in machine learning at Apple for quite some time.
There are real problems in that space that if we solve could unlock tremendous amounts of societal and economic progress. So I really hope kind of more people focus and spend their time on it. I think a very interesting question is to the extent to which you would want to build a real business on top of GPT 3 and exactly how so, you know example businesses have been there's some interesting demos. You can see online. If someone typing in a bunch of words like give me an interface with a table with two buttons at the bottom. I can click on and gbg3 can produce not just English language, but also programming language
So it's able to produce that interface and that's very kind of exciting as a demo. Actually. I think the interesting question is will this be kind of a disruptive innovation one that startups will be able to take advantage of or is this such an obvious thing that it will be a sustaining Innovation for the large companies you could imagine someone kind of creating a say a Shopify clone or you just have to mutter set up a website for me. You know that looks at particular way and it just automatically happens versus kind of Shopify just doing that. That is I think the first way in which I'd kind of
Whether these startups using GP T3 are good or not. The second more interesting question is whether just be tons of GPT 3. Now's their various numbers online. You could read about how much money this thing took to create. It's all in the ballpark of single digit millions and you can Envision pretty much every large company Under the Sun maybe training their own similar model now so very rapidly evolving landscape, certainly a lot of people working on it remains unclear whether this is going to be the type of thing that's going to be like say mobile banking which is very much a sustaining Innovation for the big guys.
Versus a huge disruptive innovation like Uber or instacart coming out of Mobile
on the sort of the opposite end of the complexity spectrum is a great post that you've put up called the power of ten Playbook, which I think is a nice little Ode to not thinking too big too soon and a great way to get started on a project which my experience in covid so far. I'm curious if it's yours as well. It's like almost everyone I know is trying something new as a side project as maybe even a new career they have extra time. They're not commuting whatever the reasons are and I love this little
Playbook could you describe why you wrote it and sort of what you mean by
it? 21 is going to be very interesting year in hindsight because we've run this kind of great A/B test of what the world looks like if we kind of turn everyone into dropouts and if you're in University, literally or Draw, I mean, even if you're attending Zoom School your kind of a Dropout you don't really have to go anywhere. So glasses are not being taught significant uptick in startup activity. I think Super interesting hopefully good that blog post that I wrote is kind of a just an attempt of mine to distill maybe simplify the steps that one might
take in starting a company. So we kind of touched on this earlier, but broadly speaking you kind of kind of imagine the world getting split into two jobs that have very clear set of next steps working in the military or working at Starbucks or working as a manager in a large company clear jobs, and then you got opaque jobs and I think starting a company is an incredibly opaque job. It's very unclear what to do next. It's very unclear. If you're starting a business how it's going to become stripe or how it's going to become Airbnb that seems like an unfathomable goal in all honesty even getting to like, I don't know a hundred thousand dollars in Revenue feels like an unfathomable go.
So I think it's very important to break these things down into bite-sized steps. And that post was really just an attempt to do that. It seems very hard and very an achievable to run a marathon but it also seems very achievable to run 200 meters and a good running program will kind of give you the step-by-step way to get there so that you know at some point if you really want to you find yourself running a marathon you find your company doing tens of millions of dollars in revenue and it really starts with just trying to get a small set of people initially just 10, which I think is a very achievable goal a group of
Ten people that are avidly using your product. This is important for two reasons one is it'll enable you to run the process of discovery around what's wrong in your product. And what's right. I have not yet to see a case where without consulting anyone in the world. Someone creates something and it's instantly successful overnight. Maybe Bitcoin is the only example of this no consultation. Just put it out there and it works. The one thing you'll get out of it is 10 people you'll be able to refine what you're building and you'll be able to search the space of kind of product Improvement and hopefully good way.
Second thing that's very important. That's of an underrated reason is you'll find yourself becoming more motivated to work on the product if it's ten people ideally that you respect because you'll want to be able to serve them in an interesting way. We often find at Pioneer that that alone is the catalyzing feedback loop to getting something going. It's not even Revenue. It's just getting the attention of 10 people that like what you're building once you go to 10. You can try to go to a hundred which kind of the next step and once you go to a hundred you can try to get to maybe $1000 and recurring Revenue what I find so hopefully
Spelling about this concept is it's extremely inexcusable to say I can't get 10 users. I mean everyone's got to be able to find 10 people. The internet has billions of them. The attempt was really to distill kind of this unknown fairly opaque thing to a simple set of goals that I think anyone can use to kind of get started and starting an online business that hopefully goes to the more it's worth mentioning that I feel like a lot of Founders forget that everything big start small. The reason people forgot. This is there's media teams responsible for making sure you forget this the first thing you do after the company successful as you hire folks in kind of
And marketing and they'll do an excellent job of rewriting your origin story so that it sounds like from the moment you were six you were working on whatever it is Microsoft or Amazon.com or Facebook. And this is your life's mission to connect people whatever whatever whatever. I find it very strengthening to go. Look at early variants of websites of amazon.com. You can watch some of the interviews with Mark Zuckerberg from 2005 where he says, there's no reason Facebook should expand beyond the scope of Harvard even SpaceX with all of its might SpaceX with all of its might was originally conceived as
I believe the green Mars our Oasis project, which I'll describe to you. It sounds like something you do when you're in La the idea was hey, let's go buy some Russian rockets launched them into Mars will just get a photo of a green plant on Mars and then we'll shut down the company. That's it's a giant photo stunt which at the end of the day is slightly ambitious, but it's not the ambition of we're going to Great interplanetary travel the largest private space company in the world and migrate the entire human populace to another planet. That was not the goal the goal.
Is let's get a nice photo on Mars. So you got to remember all you know, everything big start small and that post was really meant to help distill that for people and give them a bit of a framework there.
One of the interesting transition is happening. You and I were chatting about Tick Tock a little bit is indicative of this trend that I think you've written about elsewhere to which is the notion of Technologies kind of starting at a frontier becoming what we call technology but then eventually becoming a utility most people don't think of today's utilities as yesterday's Technologies, but they were can you talk about that General transition that General
life cycle of a piece of technology or railroad or something else and how it relates to some of the giant but we still call technology companies of today maybe with Tick Tock as an
example. I enjoy reading a lot of old news. I find that at the end of the day the world moves in cycles and the tricky thing is the length of the cycle seems to be just ever so slightly longer than the length of the human lifespan. So it seems really new and novel to us, but it's exactly what people went through in Prior times and we don't read old news because I don't know why news seems more important I find old.
This is a great decoder ring to life particular. You can read quite a bit about just the terminology used to describe the Vanderbilt. Railroad Empire. The Rockefeller oil Empire very much as technology obviously cars were considered technology roads were considered technology. And if you go back far enough maps are considered as technology. So technology I think is really just our way of saying the new thing and there's a lot of businesses and I feel like what kind of what we're watching now if we look at the fights going on, you know with Twitter adding various tags around Trump's tweets, or what's about to happen to tick tock.
Is what we call technology businesses today. A lot of them, especially the consumer facing ones are effectively media businesses their media businesses. Just like CNN is when something moves from this era of being say a frontier technology. Some point was cars at some point. It was social networking to a utility to something. That's very popular. First of all the wording around it. I think needs to change although the slag. So you'd really again want to think about Facebook and Twitter is Media businesses with all the upsides and downsides to it talk about how just fold into Tick Tock in a minute, but
I think this means that they're going to have all the pros and cons of what a utility is and if you think about say PG&E or any other type of utility the cons are for the most part aggressively regulated. It is nationalized or at least federalized or mandated Statewide. The pros are its usually that regulatory lock-in creates kind of a mode of sorts. You can start another PG&E tomorrow and I think over time we'll probably evolved into a World War it'll be hard to start something that has the shape of face book if they really managed to get the kind of
regulatory lock in the regulators and weirdly Facebook want so they're kind of pro and cons both ways, but we are in this kind of interesting interstitial era where I think the world thinks that these media businesses are technology businesses are in kind of that middling phase. We describe where they are. In fact total utilities when distillation of this is I think what's going to happen to tick tock which is tremendously popular. There's actually a tremendous amount of US Dollars invested in the entity, but as I understand it is a Chinese entity and its kind of rapidly unfolding but there
Quite a few parties that are working on transitioning to talk into an American entity because the United States has banned Tick-Tock at least in the military. India has banned across this entire country on the one hand. I feel like I speak to a lot of people that say that's crazy what's happening? We're bending websites and the other hand if you think of tick-tock as a utility the United States is not going to let Chinese entity run its power grid. If not going to let a Chinese entity run 5G chip certainly, so it's not going to let a Chinese entity run one of the kind of largest media companies the end of the day either the thing will get
totally banned in United States, which I highly doubt or it'll have to split off and become somewhat of an American entity in you know, I think weirdly this is a everyone thinks this is bad for you know, the capital kind of stock in the company, but it's of course always a great thing. One of the greatest things that ever happened to any other previous technology Monopoly. Is that get some type of lock in by the regulator be at Banks and they say 18th 19th century or oil in their early 20s, so that to me is a very interesting lens to view Tech right now and I think the acid allocator of course wants to think about
How do I avoid the utilities and how do I find the things that are either a frontier Market or kind of a commercial market right now and I think there's a lot of interesting activity and everything from satellites and space I think remained mystifying Lee unregulated. I think there is a will be a huge War, you know in the years to come between starlink and Geo just about the airwaves but I think right now it's total Open Season and to me by the way, this is astonishing it is astonishing that Elon is going to be able to with starlink effectively provide internet to the
old in a way that is almost impossible to regulate and no one's really thinking about it that way but when you think about it, he's going to put internet in the air. There's no Towers. You have to manage. There's no cabling. You have to lay. It's literally going to be in the air. So that's a great example. I think of an underrated Frontier Market
why in that specific example? Why can't it be regulated? And also what do you think it enables is that the equivalent of whatever and always talks about around like platform shifts that create, you know, the introduction of the iPhone or something that creates an enormous opportunity.
To build stuff on top of in your mind to something like starlink represent that sort of platform shift assuming it's not regulated out of existence or something two
questions there in terms of why can't be regulated. I mean, I think it can be regulated by convenience. Great firewall in China is an interesting example this yes, technically you can bypass the great firewall. It's not hermetic in many ways. You don't and so that gives a huge Edge to obviously Chinese companies. And so I think you could do similar things with startling where for example, you could ban the sale of save receivers in a
Particular country and yeah people still smuggle them in but the convenience factor matters much more. It's hard to regulate iridium. It's hard to regulate something that is just in the air in terms of it being disruptive. Yeah, one of the most interesting questions I find right now in disruptions, we can of course think of consumptive ways. They'll disrupt the industry but non-consumption is always the most interesting form of disruption. This is the Clayton Christensen framework, obviously now in consumption or new use cases that we couldn't have thought of before that just really change everything and I don't exactly understand.
What the non-consumption Just Around satellite super cheap satellite launch will be but it feels like there's a lot of interesting things there if you could launch satellites, I believe in iridium satellite launches and be 50 million dollars or so and with Starship, I think a SpaceX satellite launches maybe $50,000. So it's very interesting to think of what goes up in space and how that whole thing unfolds. If it's that cheap to launch things satellites Internet satellite feel like the most obvious use case initially, but certainly not long-term. I imagine weird stuff will come out of it. What?
Have been hard. I think to predict Uber when the mobile phone came out very easy to think of order a taxi on your phone not to kind of increase the time of the market like uber did and I wonder what that will be four satellites and I think there's a different question which is for someone allocating Capital to it. What is the payback period and to what extent is this kind of something that should be kind of infrastructure investment versus venture capital investment. That's a whole other question. But I very much believe that the kind of next decade we can think of the 2020 to 2030 that will be the decade of starlink of satellites in a space
one.
No question on the ecosystem in which you operate and then my traditional closing question. So first the final question on the Venture ecosystem, you mentioned the amount of capital sloshing about down there say a little bit about this notion you have of a seed versus Leach ratio in the Venture world and how you see that
evolving first question. We must ask ourselves is the Venture game a game of is it a pickers game or is it an access game? That's kind of the first question. Of course, the answer is as you go across the cap table. You kind of see it shifts may be an inverse u shaped curve.
You can imagine very early on it's a vigorous game meaning for example, Pioneer extremely early we can kind of pick whoever we want. Very late stage in the cap table. It's also a pickers game. I mean, obviously the company's public for the most part hedge funds are kind of in the game of picking on the game of access, but at the A and the B, it is very much a game of access, you know, the good companies are known and the main question is can you get into the company and and I think if you're kind of investor you have to realize where you're playing and you have to develop different competencies based on where you're going to play and I think
If you are going to play in the access game, it is very interesting to think of in my head at the way. It's distilled this kind of your seed Leach ratio in the Venture World. Anyone who kind of grew up with bit torrent would recognize it used to be all these BitTorrent communities and BitTorrent is somewhat similar to venture where where access is constrained in the sense that all of these communities. There's a limited amount of certain resource the latest TV episode that you want to watch and all these communities would have a seed leech ratio that they would assign to you based on.
How much you're contributing to the network that is to say how much you're allowing other people to upload your copy of that TV show of us is how much your leaching how much you're taking away from the network and I find this kind of an interesting way to view relationships in general and I think it's very important to you know adventure to kind of think about it this way because you are going to want to have good relationships because you need to get invited to the party in order to win you want to be that person that is voluntarily kind of given access because there's a scarce resource. I've been thinking a lot
Lately about kind of what a good seed to Leach ratio is and you know, very simple way of quantifying this is you can kind of think of friends people you interact with in kind of think of the number of interactions you have with them where don't want anything from you or they're kind of giving you something or they're kind of just positive. There's nothing there that they're leaching from versus the number of interactions where they're actually leaching something through where they want something from you and it's very much my goal as an individual to not have to have a lot of interactions where I have a very high leech Ratio or
I always want something from someone because I don't think those are fun your kind of think of in the back of your mind the people who have a bad ratio there. I feel like I see this a lot in the Venture world where every interaction I have with the person they always want something from me behind the scenes. It leads to very ungenial and unfun conversations. In my opinion. You've kind of think of this conversation that we're having now. There's nothing we really want for each other. We're just trying to kind of have a good time and I think that's what creates flow and I think if you want to engineer success for yourself, you know in this market, I think that place I try to be as very
To not have interactions where I really want things from people for the most part. This doesn't work. I mean to the extreme the end of the day if you work at a company, obviously occasionally you have you need things from people. So it's a bit of a different Dynamic but you can think of friends is the tail end of this friends or people where you almost never have interactions where your leaching from them. It's always your seeding. There's no goal. You don't really want anything from them. And so I very much strive to try to be that person kind of an all interactions the other way of distilling this in your mind is kind of thing.
Hanging scroll kind of your WhatsApp your iMessage or whatever who are the people that you're almost always invites to the party and what are the properties of those people? I wonder this a lot because at least this insecure overachievers attempt to be a good actor in the world and kind of have a sense that I stand in in a decent spot, you know in Mankind's hierarchy. I would like to know that I would be that person. I know I'm certainly not always there but I'm striving to be so I kind of find this concept of just making sure you have a good kind of seed to Leach ratio with people to be an important one in that
sense.
It's a fascinating way to look at so many different things maybe not public markets as you said so much where you can get what you want if you're willing to pay the market price, but every other kind of investing and relationships this seems like a great concept reminds me of I think it's Adam grants book give and take a wonderful closing concept. My closing question for everybody is to ask for the kindest thing that anyone's ever done for you.
By the way. It's worth thinking detecting for a moment why this question is so good and why it works I think for any interview question. I think it's worth wondering that I think.
In my view as you ask it, there's two things going on one is its novel most people don't ask this to is use the word kindness and that kind of relaxes the environment a little bit.
I've never thought about the question itself. And before you answer it. I'm just curious if there are other questions that have a similar quality or other qualities that you find good or helpful. I guess I'm basically just asking you what are some good questions.
I mean, this is the secret to life. I will share one which is how do you think this conversations
going?
I love that question. I think it was you that introduced me to it, maybe a year ago or something like that and I've used it constantly ever since and the reason I love it is because it is so hard to hide from you have to say something that's interesting or like has some weight to it. It's very hard to just say it's gone. Okay, you just don't say that you either say it's going great and describe why you say it's not going great and feel the need to like really defend that opinion by being very specific.
And which is why I love that question. I'm curious if you like it for the same reason for a different reason.
I think there's a lot of fun things going on with that question. I mean it does kind of make you smile and laugh and that is I think the most important thing it does it breaks the fourth wall on the interview, which I think is your only goal in the interviews break the fourth wall. There's a ethereal quality to it, which is what you're kind of saying is look at us and the game that we're in this in this kind of silly. I think that very much relaxes, especially a candidate who's probably nervous second is yeah. I mean obviously a cost
The person to kind of introspect and in kind of a new way. They haven't done before the third is my way of thinking of your third point. It is impossible to not have an answer about it. It's got to be a cached answer. I mean, it's an experience. You just went through one mistake. I think a lot of people make in interviews as they ask questions for people that are novel and surprising that the person feels like they have to be performative in their answer the old Peter tealy question about what's an area in which you disagree with the world when a person asks you that I think the one
Flan that question. I mean now it's become too popular. But the one flaw in that question is there's a performative aspect to the answer so you don't really get a genuine sense of the person. Whereas how do you think this interview is going? How do you think this conversations going? It doesn't sound too intellectual and I think that's very important. If you really want to clot what makes the human genuine. This is the other reason why tying this back to our initial kind of debate around films. That's a very easy thing to kind of get a sense of the person, you know, what are some films that you like because it's a
disarming are there any other questions?
Actions for you that are on like your personal Mount Rushmore of questions that you think you'll find use for forever. Like I do the kindness question and then we'll come back to that question.
There is one question that Pioneer asks that's been trust the most revealing question period we collect a lot of these qualitative questions in addition to kind of the quantitative data didn't try and see like which question is predictive and probably the most predictive one we have is what is something weird or unusual you built for did early on in life. I find it so astonishing and how polar it is someone will tell you about
I accidentally got my high school teacher fired and then someone will say something incredibly Bland. I did a 10-mile hike to me it really explains people. And again, it's worth thinking about why that question works. I'm asking you for something factual. I'm not asking you to think or be highfalutin with your hoity-toity intellectual Concepts. So something factual something simple. You can give me an Earnest answer. It shouldn't take too long to think of and yeah really kind of give me a sense of who you are
to kind of round out the idea. We're talking about interviews mostly.
Or I guess maybe references would be another category. The reason that all these questions are interesting is what you're trying to get at some underlying substrate of the person their attitude. Why are these so interesting to you as
questions? I'm trying to understand ideally even better than you completely understand why you're doing what you're doing. I don't think I'm any brilliant person. I actually think other people could understand about me why I do what I do better than I can one of the greatest lies is when people tell you why they did certain things. I'll speak for myself.
You were to ask me. Why exactly did you leave Apple when you did or why did you sell your company? I don't know that I could give you the real answer. What I'm going to do is I'm going to give you an intellectualized answer. I thought about that. I think you'd be interested in hearing. So funny we talk to people about why did you leave job backs and go to job why I felt I wasn't learning enough. Do you really have like a daily learning number that you put next to every diary entry and the learning number was low. So you let is that really why you left or is it something deeper is what happened that?
Don't know you bumped into someone at the barbecue and they mention their salary and your salary was lower and then for three months this was in your head that your salary wasn't what it was supposed to be and at some point the email came in from the recruiter and inspiration struck or was it that you had some conversation with your wife and went down some rabbit hole and you realized in the conversation that you just really don't like your boss. The stated reason for things with humans is almost never the real reason and it's often a third-party ideally people much smarter than me. I hope that can figure out
Out what it is and in an interview what I'm trying to figure out is that the founder that we're meeting or whether it's someone were hiring to work at Pioneer. I'm trying to figure out why are you doing this? And what's driving you and I find ways to get there are asking simple questions that the person can answer without needing to perform. The person is working against you when they start performing and by the way another tactic I'll occasionally uses. I tell people especially now of resume where there's a bit more of a disconnect. I tell people
Front please stop performing and just be yourself with me and I will try to do the same with you. Very simple other thing. I highly recommend doing on this front repeat the same question over and over again until you get the answer. I think a lot of people walk into interviews and they have this rubric of questions. They need to ask maybe their boss gave it to them and they asked the question they get the answer and then they move on there was literally no entropy exchanged. Like the question was what is your biggest weakness? The answer was I work too hard and then you moved
Don you might as well have not had a conversation that's what a draining conversation is in my opinion. It's that you are eating up oxygen without any novelty in it. I very much try to not have those partially because I'm trying to understand the person partially because nobody wants to be bored.
I have a friend who says society and its trimmings are only three days deep meeting. If you're a kind of by yourself in the wilderness or something for three days it all sorts of Falls away. And I like this version of it, which is the truth is only three answers away or three questions away rather. It's a neat concept. I'm forced now.
Return to my actual question. I do love I've never explained this before but since we're talking about questions, I do love asking it just because it makes me happy at the end of interviews. It's not more complicated than that. And I think that orienting and priming people around some act of kindness is great way to close so I'm curious for your answer to the kind of thing that anyone's ever done for you.
Okay, so I bet of a recency bias, but something that's been on my mind almost every single day a couple of weekends ago. I drove my car to the middle of nowhere in California was pretty warm up the car and the side of the
The road I don't really pay attention to where I parked it. I lock the door put my keys in my pocket and I go out for a run and I come back to the car 12 miles 12 14 miles later. Pretty dehydrated didn't bring any water with me. It's maybe 95 degrees and I'm pretty excited to get into the car turn on the air conditioning drink some water and get back home then discovered that the car had sunk into the ground a little bit kind of very thin sand turn on the car and start the engine and hit the gas and dig.
A great pitch for myself situation becomes a little bit more alarming when I realize the car has almost no fuel left literally in the middle of nowhere in California. I really treated myself here and I thought I was screwed but it only took maybe I don't know 10 12 minutes till someone's driving by on the road and they drive by and then they passed me and then they turn around lo and behold over the course of the next 30 40 minutes or show three people stop their car kind of turn around and help me tow my car out of the sand and to me this is like so
simple but so momentous for me. I truly had begun thinking I'll get basically it I'm stuck here. And you know, I'm going to make Camp here for the next three days, but the fact that people went out of their way to help me. Here's the interesting thing that I find in it now every time I'm driving on, you know any type of Road in particular if it's desolate and I see someone stock I have a real proclivity to try to help them because I was helped and I think that small effect in many ways describes the magic of Silicon Valley someone took a bet on me when I was 18 years old.
And you kind of see now in my career. I'm trying to take other bets on people. So there's a real Pay It Forward element I think happens to when you shower someone with an excessive amount of with a surprising amount. We should say of effort when they feel like they don't deserve it. So, I don't know if this is the most kind thing people have done to me, but that's a pretty big one.
I love it. So many of the answers come down to the same thing. You said earlier around seed and leech that fundamentally. They're all seating activities. It's a great place to close.
Every time we talk, I feel like I take away 15 fun devices new bits of learning new ideas. You're always full of them. And so I've loved to have finally been able to do this on the record. I'm sure will be the first of several. Thanks for your time.
Thank you so much. I enjoyed it as well.
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